Floods, melting ice, fires, and feverish heat from smoke-choked Moscow to water soaked Pakistan and the High Arctic, the planet seems to be having a midsummer breakdown. It is not just a portent of things to come, but a sign of troubling climate change already under way said by scientists.
The Geneva based World Meteorological Organizations says, the weather-related cataclysms of July and August fit patterns predicted by climate scientists, even though those scientists always shy from tying individual disasters directly to global warming. The experts now see an imperative need for better ways to forecast extreme events like Russia heat wave and wildfires and the record flood devastating Pakistan. They will discuss such utensils in meetings this month and next in Europe and America.
Peter Stott a British government climatologist says, There is no time to waste, because societies must be equipped to face with global warming and modelers of climate systems are very keen to develop supercomputer modeling that would enable more detailed linking of cause and effect as a warming world shifts jet streams and other atmospheric currents. Those changes can cause weather havoc.
The U.N. IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) has long predicted that increasing global temperatures would generate more frequent and intense heat waves, and more intense rainfalls. In his latest assessment in 2007 the Nobel Prize-winning panel went beyond that. It said these tendencies have already been observed, in an increase in heat waves since 1950. Still, climatologists usually refrain from blaming warming for this drought or that flood, since so many others factor also affect the day’s weather.
Stott and NASA’s Gavin Schmidt said it is better to reflect in terms of odds and warming might double the chances for a heat wave that is precisely what’s happening; a lot more warm extremes and less cold extremes. However, WMO did point out, that this summer events fit the international scientist’s projections of more frequent and more severe extreme weather events due to global warming.
Virtually, in key cases they’re a perfect fit:
RUSSIA
It’s been the hottest summer ever recorded in Russia with Moscow temperatures topping 100 degrees Fahrenheit (37.8 degrees C) for the first time in Russian history. The drought there has sparked hundreds of wildfires in forests and dried peat bogs, blanketing western Russia with toxic smog. Another noteable point; Moscow’s death rate has doubled to 700 people a day. The drought abridged the wheat harvest by more than one third. The IPCC 2007 report predicted a doubling of catastrophic droughts in Russia this century and cited studies foreseeing disastrous fires during dry years, and Russia would suffer large crop losses.
PAKISTAN
The heaviest torrential monsoon rains on record 12 inches in one 36-hour period have sent rivers rampaging over huge swaths of countryside. This left 14 million Pakistanis homeless or otherwise affected, and killed more than 1,500 people. The Pakistan government calls it the most horrible natural disaster in the nation’s history. A warmer atmosphere can hold and discharge more water even. The IPCC 2007 report said rains have grown heavier for 40 years over north Pakistan and predicted greater flooding this century in south Asia monsoon region.
CHINA
The WMO says, China is witnessing its most dreadful floods in decades, mainly in the northwest province of Gansu. Here, floods and landslides last weekend killed at least 1,117 people and left more than 600 people missing while apprehension swept away or buried beneath mud and debris. The IPCC reported in 2007 that rains had greater than before in northwest China by up to 33 percent since 1961, and floods nationwide had increased sevenfold since the 1950s. It forecast still more frequent flooding this century.
ARCTIC
The researchers last week spotted a 100 square mile chunk of ice calved off from the great Petermann Glacier in Greenland far northwest. It was the most gigantic ice island to break away in the Arctic in a half century of observation. The massive iceberg come into sight just five months after an international scientific team published a report saying ice loss from the Greenland ice sheet is expanding up its northwest coast from the south. Changes in the ice sheet are happening quickly, and we are absolutely losing more ice mass than we had anticipated, said by one of NASA scientists, Isabella Velicogna.
In the Arctic Ocean, the summer melt of huge ice cap has reached unprecedented proportions. Satellite data show the ocean area covered by ice last month was the second lowest ever recorded for July. The melting of land ice into the oceans is causing about 60 percent of the accelerating increase in sea levels worldwide, with thermal expansion from warming waters causing the rest. The WMO’S World Climate Research Program says sea levels are increasing by 1.34 inches per decade, about twice the 20th century average.
Worldwide temperature readings demonstrate that this January to June was the hottest first half of a year in 150 years of global climate record keeping. Meteorologists say 17 countries have recorded all time high temperatures in 2010, more than in any other year. Scientists hold responsible the warming on carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gases pouring into the atmosphere from power plants, cars and trucks, furnaces and other fossil fuel burning industrial and residential sources. Experts are growing ever more vocal in urging sharp decrease in emissions, to safe the climate that has nurtured modern civilization. dropping emissions is somewhat everyone is capable of, Nanjing based climatologist Tao Li told in China, at the present the world’s No. 1 emitter, ahead of the U.S. But not everyone is willing to act. The U.S. remains the only major industrialized country not to have legislated caps on carbon emissions.
The U.S. inaction dating back to the 1990s is a vital reason global talks have bogged down for a pact to succeed the expiring Kyoto Protocol. That is the relatively feeble accord on emissions cuts adhered to by all other industrialized states. Governments around the world, particularly in poorer nations that will be hard hit, are scrambling to discover ways and money to adapt to shifts in climate and rising seas. The coming meetings of climatologists in Paris, Britain and Colorado will be one step toward adaptation, seeking ways to identify trends in extreme events and better means of forecasting them.
A U.N. specialist in natural disasters says a lot more needs to be done and pointed to aggravating factors in the latest climate catastrophes: China failure to stem deforestation, contributing to its deadly mudslides; Russia poor forest management, feeding fires; and the settling of poor Pakistanis on flood plains and dry riverbeds in the densely populated country, squatters turf that suddenly turned into torrents. But the most important trend we need to look at is raising vulnerability, the fact we have more people living in the wrong places, doing the wrong things.